Publication date: May 26, 2025

In our third weekly report, we highlight listings, sales, and other activity in the central Palisades burn area land market (see map below). We make this information available to current owners, brokers, and prospective sellers as a way to increase transparency and efficiency in the local market, with the goal of helping to facilitate the recovery of the entire Palisades. We are not brokers, and our valuations and insights are not intended to convince any party to buy, sell, build, or hold any property.

(Our valuation model is built on 20+ separate factors and is based on publicly available data combined with AI and machine learning. We use the model to calculate values for owners and brokers, as well as to determine whether a particular property for sale is overpriced, underpriced, or fairly priced. We create a high-level valuation estimate for no charge, while our deeper dives and other services are available for a fee.  Please reach out to us or visit www.merkletree.llcfor more information. See footnotes for information regarding third party data.

As of May 26, there have been 56 confirmed public sales of burnt-R1 lots since January 15. This does not include private deals or transfers, or deals in Malibu, Topanga or the upper Highlands.

As of today (May 26), there are 187 properties for sale, or about 180 if we take out the upper Highlands and non-fire lot properties.

As in our last report, Compass is the leading brokerage firm, with 57 listings (7 new), followed by Berkshire Hathaway with 28 (1 new), Coldwell Banker with 24, and the Agency with 16 (all on the listing-side; we do not yet track buy-side brokers). 

New listings peaked in April, with 74 properties hitting the market during the month, the highest rate of new listings this year. For perspective, March had 63 new listings, and February (staring mid-month), had just 14 new listings. From May 1 through the 19th, about 43 properties have been listed, so there’s still time to approach the April high. 

The average time on market is roughly 48 days (up from 42) for all properties, and 33 days for SOLD properties. Properties in the Huntington sold in 26 days, the fastest of all the neighborhoods, while those in the Alphabets took an average of 10 days longer than average to sell. The oldest listings are (on average) in the Alphabets, though the Highlands and Castellammare are slightly longer but out of our central coverage zone.

The average price for a listed property (ex-Huntington*) since January 15 is $2.55MM, with an average asking price per square foot of land of $310/psf (up from $304). That number is lower if we remove the dozen or so Huntington properties, making the average asking price $2.45MM and $286/psf (up from $279/psf). 

The asking prices for properties currently on the market (on a per foot basis) are as follows: (arrows indicate change from last week)

May 1 – 26 has seen 16 public sales, with the majority (11) having been described with views (our valuation model differentiates ocean v canyon views, which will become more predictive as we see more sales). 

What isn’t moving? Listings are the oldest in the Alphabets (averaging 50 days) while the listings in the Huntington have only been on the market 33 days. The Marque Knolls has the distinction of having the greatest percentage of properties asking more than 15% of recent comps, while the Upper Alphabets have just 2 properties currently asking more than recent comps (views being the differentiator up there).

 OUTLOOK

PCH is open! Finally, regular people can take PCH to Malibu. While this will definitely add some shock value (looking at the burnt-out husks along PCH), it will also hopefully bring back a sense of normalcy to businesses in Malibu.  We also saw the announcement that the Palisades Village center (aka Caruso-ville) will reopen in early 2026, anchored by the return of Elyse Walker. We predict that this will serve as a catalyst for transactions, and if all goes according to plan, will certainly loosen the market for land. 

Advice to owners (updated): if you do not have to sell, don’t. That said, if you must sell, and you have a generic lot (say 6500sf in the flat Alphas), then price it near comp and assume you’ll be out in 30-45 days. If you have a prime Huntington lot, and do not have to sell, do not. This is AAA land and will likely only appreciate. If you must sell, add 10-20% to comps and see what happens. The scarcity of lots, especially prime Huntington, is currently your friend. There are roughly 200-225ish destroyed homes in the Huntington (50% or more destroyed) and only about 10 for sale. We assume that owners in this pocket had deeper pockets, and potentially better insurance, so may be less motivated to sell. Less supply, more demand…

Advice to buyers/ developers: there is not much reason to act early, especially given that early projects will come online and be surrounded by vacant lots and construction projects --- hardly ideal to move in or sell into. That said, if you can buy a flat lot in the Alphabets (ideally a N/S street on the odd side) at or under $285/psf, and you think you can build a 4,000 sf home for $800/ft, you’re in for about $5MM (yes, a lot of assumptions), it might make sense to act. These lots prior to the fire were 50% to 75% more expensive), and will hopefully get there eventually as a brand-new, more resilient neighborhood sprouts up. 

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Information provided is sourced from third-party databases and sites deemed to be reliable. Merkle Tree and Pali Land make no guarantees as to the accuracy of this information. Please consult your legal, tax, and real estate advisers before making major decisions regarding any real property.